Thoughts On Ukraine and Russia!
A protracted Guerrilla war phase will be the undoing of Russia’s efforts, as in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, many innocents will suffer.
Personal note from a Ukranian in Kiev---This is from a 3-star US retired General.
In case of a full-scale Russian military invasion into the Ukraine, we can expect to see the following:
In the initial phase, Ukraine will use its military to fight delaying operations. Their biggest problem will be the weakness of their Air Force in comparison to Russian airpower.
It can be expected that it takes Russia about 72 hours to win absolute air superiority over Ukrainian airspace. After this time, the Ukrainian Army will be unable to conduct any bigger-sized ground operations.
In the first 3 days, however (when Russia's air force is still “busy” with their Ukrainian counterpart), we can expect Ukraine to send their armored units in the way of the Russian ground forces.
There will be classical delay tactics: find a suitable defensive position, engage the enemy and withdraw to the next defensive position, where the same thing continues.
Russia has extremely capable artillery and counter artillery troops and Ukraine’s ground forces have to move quickly if they want to survive.
After 3-7 days, the Russians will need to consolidate. It can be expected that the bulk of the Ukrainian military has either been destroyed or is tied down by massive Russian artillery and airstrikes. What is left will either move to the bigger cities, to Kyiv, Dnipro, and lands west of the Dnieper River.
After week one, the fighting will concentrate around Kyiv. Seizing Ukraine’s capital will be Russia’s top priority. Its 3 million inhabitants have fled, which gives the defenders the necessary space to operate.
This is the moment when Ukraine’s soldiers can play out their strengths. Equipped with modern anti-tank guided missiles (British N-LAWs and US-made Javelins) they pose a dangerous threat to Russian armored divisions.
Due to their limited range and lack of crew protection, these antitank missiles cannot be effectively used in an open battlefield, in an urban environment, on the other hand, they are devastating. In addition, the Ukrainian’s have several US-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in their arsenal that will keep Russian Close Air Support at a distance. In this phase, Ukraine will rely on urban warfare tactics.
In a third phase, the Russians will try to squash all formal military resistance and at one point, there will be a ceasefire or formal surrender by the Ukrainian military. Ukraine’s government will move the seat of government to Lviv. If the Russians choose to crush the government, they must cross the Carpathian Mountains.
What comes next is classical guerrilla warfare. Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe, and it will be a nightmare for the Russian troops to control. Ukraine borders on four NATO countries (Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland) and it has a long coastline. To control these borders to stop the influx of weapons and personnel for a Ukrainian guerrilla movement will keep 100,000 Russian troops busy.
At the same time, the Ukrainian defenders will tie down another couple of hundred thousand Russian troops in Western and central Ukraine.
This kind of guerrilla campaign would be extremely costly for Russia. In the end, the question won't be if the Russians withdraw their troops but when.
Putin, этот сукин сын, can lick his wounds.
Personal note from a Ukranian in Kiev---This is from a 3-star US retired General.
In case of a full-scale Russian military invasion into the Ukraine, we can expect to see the following:
In the initial phase, Ukraine will use its military to fight delaying operations. Their biggest problem will be the weakness of their Air Force in comparison to Russian airpower.
It can be expected that it takes Russia about 72 hours to win absolute air superiority over Ukrainian airspace. After this time, the Ukrainian Army will be unable to conduct any bigger-sized ground operations.
In the first 3 days, however (when Russia's air force is still “busy” with their Ukrainian counterpart), we can expect Ukraine to send their armored units in the way of the Russian ground forces.
There will be classical delay tactics: find a suitable defensive position, engage the enemy and withdraw to the next defensive position, where the same thing continues.
Russia has extremely capable artillery and counter artillery troops and Ukraine’s ground forces have to move quickly if they want to survive.
After 3-7 days, the Russians will need to consolidate. It can be expected that the bulk of the Ukrainian military has either been destroyed or is tied down by massive Russian artillery and airstrikes. What is left will either move to the bigger cities, to Kyiv, Dnipro, and lands west of the Dnieper River.
After week one, the fighting will concentrate around Kyiv. Seizing Ukraine’s capital will be Russia’s top priority. Its 3 million inhabitants have fled, which gives the defenders the necessary space to operate.
This is the moment when Ukraine’s soldiers can play out their strengths. Equipped with modern anti-tank guided missiles (British N-LAWs and US-made Javelins) they pose a dangerous threat to Russian armored divisions.
Due to their limited range and lack of crew protection, these antitank missiles cannot be effectively used in an open battlefield, in an urban environment, on the other hand, they are devastating. In addition, the Ukrainian’s have several US-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in their arsenal that will keep Russian Close Air Support at a distance. In this phase, Ukraine will rely on urban warfare tactics.
In a third phase, the Russians will try to squash all formal military resistance and at one point, there will be a ceasefire or formal surrender by the Ukrainian military. Ukraine’s government will move the seat of government to Lviv. If the Russians choose to crush the government, they must cross the Carpathian Mountains.
What comes next is classical guerrilla warfare. Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe, and it will be a nightmare for the Russian troops to control. Ukraine borders on four NATO countries (Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland) and it has a long coastline. To control these borders to stop the influx of weapons and personnel for a Ukrainian guerrilla movement will keep 100,000 Russian troops busy.
At the same time, the Ukrainian defenders will tie down another couple of hundred thousand Russian troops in Western and central Ukraine.
This kind of guerrilla campaign would be extremely costly for Russia. In the end, the question won't be if the Russians withdraw their troops but when.
Putin, этот сукин сын, can lick his wounds.
No comments:
Post a Comment