Sunday, May 31, 2015

Economic Growth Nears Zero : Citizens Fear "Fundamental Change"

Why is the economy not growing isn't a question of economics, it's a question of fear, frustration and anger with our government and it's agenda and ideology for "fundamental change".

As Mr Obama and the progressive socialist have done their dirty work over the last 7 years to move the country from a representative democracy to a socialist theocracy, more and more people that do the heavy lifting in this country are suffering with higher taxes, government corruption through unrepresentative unconstitutional over reaching regulations and institutional law making to strangle any sense of pride and prosperity that was once the very foundation for personal achievement and freedom in our country is now in danger of being lost.

No one ever would have thought this could happen in America, ever, but it's happening now as Mr Obama has promised.

It's the fear that the our government is spiraling out of control and there isn't anything that anyone can do to stop it. The people that make up the working class and pay all the bills for everyone else understand this, and wonder if there is any way to turn this around so future generations will have chance to prosper like their forbearers?

And maybe even worse, the source of frustration and anger is even after the landslide victory of the Republicans last November, that most of us thought would signal a seismic shift in the power structure in Washington that would make the difference, has turned out to be nothing more then politics as usual.

Republicans demonstrating once again, as history has shown us, with the exception of Reagan, they are weak and ineffective as leaders.

Economic Growth Sluggish in 2015
Source: Ben Gitis and Gordon Gray, "State of the Economic Recovery: 5 Economic Indicators to Watch," American Action Forum, May 27, 2005.

May 29, 2015

Last month the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of the growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the first quarter of 2015. According to the report, real GDP's annualized growth rate was only 0.2 percent. Some argue that this low estimate is due to an underlying methodological issue that results in a significant underestimate for the first quarter.

However, several economic indicators have decelerated or declined over the last few months, indicating tepid growth in the first quarter. What exactly is the debate over the recent GDP report?

At issue are the BEA's seasonal adjusting methods. Most economic raw estimate features significant variation throughout the year due to typical changes in weather and holidays. In order to uncover those trends throughout the year, officials publish seasonally adjusted estimates, which account for these variations and generally are the headline figures in any report. Economists have noted that even after seasonal adjustment, the BEA's first quarter GDP growth estimates have been consistently lower than the rest of the year. This might suggest that the BEA has been underestimating first quarter growth.

Economists have found some troubling signs of slow growth: Total retail sales began to fall at the end of 2014 and continued to decline in 2015. There was a decline in consumer confidence during the beginning of 2015. Durable goods orders excluding defense and aircraft have been falling since summer 2014 and continued to decline into 2015.

ISM's composite index of manufacturing growth, the PMI, has fallen significantly since last summer and continued to fall through the first quarter of 2015, representing a significant deceleration in manufacturing growth.

Non-manufacturing was still growing but at a decelerated rate at the beginning of 2015.

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