Unemployment Numbers Confusing

This is very confusing as it will always be when dealing with the government. Still, it gives some idea that finding out the real number of the unemployed is nearly impossible.

One thing we do know for sure, there are a lot of people out of work and with little hope of finding a job anytime soon. Thank you progressive Democrats.


How Do Jobs Numbers Work?
Source: Philip I. Levy, "How Do Jobs Numbers Work?" American Enterprise Institute, August 9, 2011.

Americans are intensely interested in the state of the job market but trying to get a good sense of it is difficult. Without attempting a tusk-to-tail description of job statistics, here is a rough guide to the much-discussed numbers, says Philip I. Levy, a resident scholar of the American Enterprise Institute.

How is the job market doing, anyway?

The latest figure for the first number shows 117,000 net new jobs in July; it comes from a monthly "Current Employment Statistics" survey of approximately 140,000 employers and their hiring.
The second number shows unemployment decreased to 9.1 percent; it comes from the monthly Current Population Survey, a sample of 60,000 households.

Why do some people say the unemployment rate paints too rosy a picture?

The two big numbers are just crude summaries of a more complicated situation.
For example, suppose someone would like to be working 40 hours per week, but can only find part-time work (say 20). Does he have a job? Yes. Is he unemployed? No.

Is it really one big labor market, from data engineers to short-order cooks?

No, those workers are not interchangeable. Nor does a job in Oregon necessarily do much for a high school graduate in North Carolina. The job numbers capture some of this, but not all.
What if you had a really big data set of employers and job seekers? Could you get a better picture? Probably, but there would be some pitfalls to watch out for. Those big numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the headline payroll employment number of 117,000 is.
Seasonal adjustment helps answer whether the job market is doing better or worse than we would expect.

Are these government surveys the only measure of the labor market?

No. There are a number of other measures and reports out there: mass layoffs; first-time claims for unemployment benefits; Challenger, Gray & Christmas's job cuts. Each of these provides a different look at how workers are leaving their jobs.