Demand for Electrical Power IS Unstoppable

This is an excerpt from the Wisconsin Energy Cooperation Magazine - I can't add much to this as it covers most of what our future is all about - even if we refuse to admit that we are headed to an energy disaster by standing on the side lines in the fight to increase known sources of energy.

Don't look to someone else to take the lead - it's you and I that have to do the heavy lifting here or all will be in darkness and cold. The ignorance in congress is beyond the pale - politicians are willing to surrender any and all things for power.

As luck will have it, they can't stop us from going on the offensive, yet. Keep the faith while demand common sense from our leaders. Now you know the battle is joined!

Power Squeeze The Pending Pinch of Rising Demand


Will our nation’s electric system continue to provide a reliable, safe, and affordable supply of power in coming years?

This question was asked most recently by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a Princeton, N.J.-based non-profit organization charged with monitoring America’s power system reliability. In October 2007, NERC published its annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment, which provides a forecast on how much electric generating capacity will be available during the next decade. The report also estimates how much electricity people will use over that time.

The organization’s findings revealed that current plans to build power plants and high-voltage transmission lines lag behind the expected growth in power consumption. They also match a U.S. Department of Energy forecast that demand for electricity nationally will increase by 40 percent during the next 22 years. Even if the country can dramatically increase efficiency and conservation programs, electricity demand over time will continue to grow as our economy and population grows.

NERC warned, “Demand for electricity is expected to increase over the next 10 years by approximately 18 percent in the United States, but confirmed generation capacity will increase by only 8.5 percent; expansion and strengthening of the transmission system [also] continues to lag demand growth and expansion of generating resources in most areas.”
Falling Behind

Prospects for bringing many additional large-scale generation resources on line within that 10-year time frame get increasingly shaky as time passes. Consider the case of coal-fired generation, which at present supplies the U.S. with 50 percent its electricity and electric co-ops with 62 percent of their power requirements.

It takes a minimum of six years to build and put a coal-fired power plant into operation, barring regulatory or legal challenges. The Associated Press recently reported that nearly four-dozen new coal plants in 29 states are being contested, mostly due to concerns related to greenhouse gas emissions. Projections are that it might take as long as 10 years before technology can be successfully implemented to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions from coal-burning power plants.

Ramping up development of nuclear power, also touted as a possible solution to lagging capacity, might not fare much better than coal. Nuclear power generates 20 percent of all electricity in the U.S. and about 15 percent of electric co-op power needs. But it was 1986 when the last new nuclear plant in the U.S. came on line, and a facility for permanently storing radioactive spent-fuel from operating reactors remains controversial. Projections are that it could be at least 10 years before a respository gets completed. Last August marked the first time in nearly 30 years that a utility filed an application to construct a new nuke plant, and that application was followed by two more from other utilities—but estimates hold that it would take 10 years to bring any new nuclear reactor on line.

A Brief Tutorial

There are a few unique properties of electricity and the dynamics of power generation that need to be understood to fully grasp the impact of NERC’s assessment:

• Electricity can’t be stored—it must be used immediately and flow continuously. Electric energy generated at a power plant flows through high-voltage transmission lines to substations, where it is reduced to a lower voltage for safe distribution to homes and businesses. Reliability refers to the availability of electricity when and where consumers need it, without interruption.

• Not every power plant generates electricity all of the time. Across the country on any given day, it is normal for numerous plants to be shut down due to a broad range of issues, such as scheduled maintenance, fuel availability or price, or low water levels at a dam where a hydroelectric power plant operates.

• High-voltage transmission lines carrying electricity from generating plants to distribution substations need regular and emergency maintenance. Vegetation management to clear rights-of-way or weather events—such as ice storms or tornadoes—can interrupt the flow of electricity on these “power highways.”

• For consumers to receive reliable electric service, a certain amount of extra capacity must always be available. NERC has stated that generation capacity margins should average 15 percent or more.

In other words, generation plants should be able to produce approximately 15 percent more electricity than consumers are expected to use during times of peak demand —the electric utility industry’s equivalent of rush-hour traffic. This helps ensure sufficient power in an emergency or if a specific power plant needs to be shut down for service.